The UnSkewed Republican Delegate Count

The UnSkewed Republican Delegate Count

Ted Cruz could win the GOP nomination

Ted Cruz could win the GOP nomination

Real Clear Politics is reporting the Republican delegate count today as 736 for Donald Trump and 463 for Ted Cruz. While that is somewhat accurate, it has not been updated to reflect some recent changes in the delegate count. Those changes, and some of the other changes that are coming soon, will change the perception and the reality of this Republican nomination contest.

One of the major changes regards the 50 delegates of South Carolina, where all the candidates signed a pledge, as a condition of competing for the 50 delegates there, to support the eventual nominee chosen this summer by the Republican Convention in Cleveland. This past week, Donald Trump announced he will not support the party’s nominee unless he is that nominee. This violates the agreement he signed to compete in South Carolina and it will be the reason those delegates are stripped from Trump and designated as uncommitted delegates who can vote for any candidate they choose on the first ballot. That change leaves Trump with 686 delegates.

In Louisiana, where Trump and Cruz were only separated by three percent in the popular vote, the two candidates won 18 delegates from the votes, while Marco Rubio won five delegates. Since Rubio suspended his campaign, his five delegates have swung to Cruz, while Cruz has also won the five uncommitted delegates from Louisiana. Those ten delegates bring Cruz to 473 delegates.

This past weekend, Republicans selected delegates for 14 uncommitted delegates seats from Tennessee, all of which were won by the better organized Ted Cruz campaign, that is winning delegates in many places due to having a far more organized ground effort than the Trump campaign. With these 14 delegates, Cruz now has 487 delegates.

Local reports from Arizona, where conventions are picking the actual delegates that will go to Cleveland from that state, it is clear that at least 50 of the 58 Arizona delegates will be Ted Cruz supporters. At the same time, it is likely that all of North Dakota’s 28 delegates will be Cruz delegates. These gains of a total of 78 delegates will bring Ted Cruz up to 565 delegates, almost as many as the 636 delegates Trump will have left after losing 50 delegates in Arizona.

Before too long, Marco Rubio will endorse Ted Cruz, and allow his 166 remaining delegates vote for Ted Cruz at the convention this summer in Cleveland. This will bring Ted Cruz to a total of 731 delegates, and 506 away from getting the majority at the convention, and it also makes him the current delegate leader, ahead of Donald Trump currently by almost 100 delegates.

Through the rest of the states that have to vote in the Republican nomination contest, it seems likely Kasich will win Pennsylvania, while Trump will win New York and New Jersey while Ted Cruz wins just about all the rest. After Cruz wins Wisconsin and Trump wins New York and Connecticut, Cruz will had a 797 to 711 lead in the delegate count.

Pennsylvania will go for Kasich while Delaware and Maryland will go for Ted Cruz. After Indiana, Nebraska, and West Virginia vote for Ted Cruz, the Texas Senator will have 983 delegates to Trump’s 722. Oregon and Washington’s delegates will go mostly to Donald Trump while Ted Cruz will win California over Trump and Kasich. This will leave Cruz leading the delegate count over Trump by 1087 to 822. Trump will win all 51 delegates in New Jersey while Cruz wins most of the delegates in Montana, New Mexico, and South Dakota. While Trump will go into the convention no longer the delegate leader with 883 delegates, Cruz will clearly be the delegate leader with 1157 delegates, or 50 short of the 1237 needed to win the nomination.

Ted Cruz will easily win at least 50 of the uncommitted delegates to win the nomination on the first ballot before going on to defeat Hillary Clinton in the general election in November. Ted Cruz will be the GOP nominee and very possibly our next president.

A scenario that could shock Republicans at the convention

A scenario that could shock Republicans at the convention

Ted Cruz could still win the GOP nomination

Ted Cruz could still win the GOP nomination

This scenario isn’t about a convention that is brokered or contested or even one where the candidate who should be the nominee is denied the nomination by some shenanigans at the convention. It’s actually one where the voters decide and the nominee preferred by the voters actually becomes the nominee. What a shocker, after all this talk or contested and brokered convention and rabid Trump supporters threatening not to vote for the nominee if that nominee is not their chosen candidate.

But before discussing the scenario, let’s preface it with a few cold and hard facts. No candidate has yet to win the GOP nomination, and no candidate is even near the 1237 delegates needed to win the nomination. Donald Trump leads, based on strong finishes in early primary votes, but he is far from being assured the 1237 delegate count to win the nomination. At this point, Trump has won about 40 percent of the votes cast in the first 32 states to cast ballots, while not-Trump (all the other candidates) have won about 60 percent of those same votes. That means about 60 percent of all Republican primary and caucus voters want someone other than Trump as the GOP nominee. That is hardly a mandate for Trump as the nominee, on which to base some moralistic crusade about how the party should nominate Trump or voters should withhold support from the party’s nominee in November.

Right now, Trump has 739 delegates and Ted Cruz officially has 465. He has won the 5 uncommitted delegates in Louisiana as well as Marco Rubio’s 5 delegates in that state. Cruz is also likely to win the other 161 delegates that Marco Rubio won, bringing Ted Cruz to a total of 636 delegates, or about 100 behind Donald Trump.

In the last couple weeks, Trump’s standing in the polls among Republicans, and all voters overall, has weakened considerably. The long-predicted collapse of the Trump campaign might be finally beginning. Trump is likely to lose Wisconsin to Cruz and Pennsylvania to John Kasich. Losing those two states will almost assure that Trump cannot reach 1237 delegates, but it won’t assure a contested convention necessarily either.

After Kasich wins Pennsylvania, and Cruz wins Wisconsin, few of the remaining states, other than New York and New Jersey, will vote for Trump as Cruz and Kasich win almost all the remaining states. It will be clear that the embarrassing attacks on Cruz’s wife by Trump, that violated all notions of presidential civility, will have been the beginning of the end of the Trump campaign.

Going into the convention in Cleveland, Cruz will actually lead Trump, 1084 delegates to 1037. So much for the argument of Trump supporters, that even if their candidate falls short of 1237 delegates, that if he’s the delegate-leader, he should be the nominee. They’ll quickly forget that argument now that Cruz is the delegate-leader, and argue only that since Trump had been leading earlier for much of the time, he should be the nominee. Sorry, he’s no longer leading and no longer has such a claim on the nomination. What happens next is easy, Kasich releases his delegates and supports Cruz, and after the first ballot at the convention, Cruz wins more than 1300 delegates and the move is made on the floor to unanimously nominate Ted Cruz as the 2016 nominee of the Republican Party.

Donald Trump has no choice but to support the nominee of the party. This scenario could very well happen. Ted Cruz can still win the nomination.