Ted Cruz campaign suspended
The objective of course, for those of us who supported Ted Cruz for president last year and this year, was for Senator Ted Cruz to win the GOP nomination, and then defeat Hillary Clinton in November. That plan fell short as Donald Trump won more votes, more states, and more delegates on his way to the nomination, than Ted Cruz did. While we appreciate and honor all that was done by Senator Cruz himself, and everyone who supported his campaign, it is important at the same time that we learn some lessons about why this campaign fell short of winning the nomination for Cruz. If we fail to learn from this experience, we are only likely to repeat those mistakes in the future.
While this is the time to learn from our experience, it is also not the time to turn on our own fellow supporters, because some of us suggest we learn from this experience, or that some of us say it’s time to unite behind our party’s nominee to defeat Hillary Clinton, or because some react to any of this by suggest some of us were never really Ted Cruz supporters anyway. I’ve already seen some of this divisive chatter online, and it has no place in this discussion. A few are showing signs of scary fanaticism at this point, in voicing these kinds of reactions to the more level-headed voices in the aftermath of Cruz’s defeat by Trump.
First, let’s be realistic about the candidate himself. Many of us hoped, and even expected, that Cruz is or would become the second coming of Ronald Reagan himself. He wasn’t. Sure Cruz was the most consistently conservative candidate that ran in 2016, and that had a lot of appeal to many conservatives around the country. And when he lasted to become the strongest challenger to Donald Trump left, he became the last hope of preventing Trump from winning the nomination. Ted Cruz came a long way to be in that position, considering where he started last year. He was, after all, a first term senator, who hasn’t yet finished his first term, who really wasn’t ready to run for president yet.
In a country plagued by eight years of failed and disastrous economic policies, and still suffering from a Great Recession we haven’t actually recovered from, a strong prosperity message would easily win. A solid plan to bring Middle Class Prosperity back to this country would be an easy winner. The voters gravitated to the closest thing that sounded like a Middle Class Prosperity message, the Make America Great Again theme offered by Donald Trump. What did Ted Cruz offer, he was the most consistent and principled defender our Constitutional liberties. That’s great and it has a lot of appeal to conservative activists. But if had little appeal to the voters out there who are struggling to pay their bills and stay afloat in this rotten economy. Cruz’s message was great for the conservative activist class but failed to inspire most Republican voters who are looking for some hope of getting out the depressing economic failures of the last seven years of Barack Obama. Voters are fed up with politics-as-usual, and the current administration, and its politics, and Trump connected far more effectively to that anger than Cruz did. Ted Cruz could have easily inspired voters with a strong Middle Class Prosperity message, and he would have easily defeated Trump if he had done that. His failure to do this is only Ted Cruz’s making, we can’t blame anyone else, not even The Donald.
Somewhere along the line, the Cruz campaign abandoned any realistic hope of winning 1237 delegates and winning the nomination legitimately, and instead focused on a strategy of winning in the event of a contested convention where Cruz would obtain a majority of delegates on the second or third ballot in Cleveland. The Cruz campaign was well aware of how the Ron Paul campaign in 2012 gamed the system and sought to win delegates at state conventions where Mitt Romney or Rick Santorum had won the primary or caucus votes, and therefore should have won the delegates, for those states. So Cruz’s campaign staff out-hustled The Donald’s campaign by skulking around at county and states conventions in many states to win delegates that were supposed to be, in many instances, pledged to vote for Donald Trump on the first ballot in Cleveland.
This process didn’t look right, and The Donald exploited the poor optics of this strategy by accusing the Cruz campaign of gaming the system, and also accusing the party leadership of running a rigged process. The optics worked for Trump, and against Cruz, and after Cruz’s big win in Wisconsin, every state after that voted against Cruz and for Trump, including a state that Ted Cruz was winning in, according to polls, and should have won: Indiana. Ted Cruz’s problems with optics were clear the night he lost the five states in the Northeast. Cruz supporters who dismiss Ted Cruz’s losses in those states because they are “more liberal” states politically are only fooling themselves with that convenient, and inaccurate, analysis. A candidate running on a strong Middle Class Prosperity message would win just about all the states, including those in the Northeast.
Even after those losses, I was assuring everyone who would listen that Ted Cruz would rebound in Indiana, and he still had a chance, even if his chance was slim. I still argued, that Ted Cruz was a far better choice than Donald Trump for the GOP nomination. I wrote and told everyone I communicated with that Cruz was still the best candidate to do all the things that needed to be done, in working to repeal the entire Obama agenda (including but not only Obamacare) and move the country forward towards freedom, prosperity, and a foreign policy based on advancing American interests around the world rather than solving all the worlds problems, regime change, and nation building. Ted Cruz was the only real conservative in the race, I wrote and told everyone who would listen. I never declared myself #NeverTrump, because I made it clear I am #NeverHillary, but I said we would definitely be much better off as a country to nominate and elect Ted Cruz as our next president. I argued these issues with Trump supporters as much as anyone did, including with close friends who were and are Trump supporters.
And then April 27 came. For a moment, time stood still. I was in shock. A friend called, before I could read any news online or hear it on the radio or television, and asked me, did you hear that Ted Cruz is going to announce Carly Fiorina as his running mate today? I said he’s going to announce what, and my friend repeated the news. After a few seconds of digesting the news, I asked, is that real? I thought this could be an April Fool’s joke 26 days late. I was assured it was for real. I asked, what was Ted Cruz smoking when he came up with this idea?
The announcement was wrong on so many levels. It looked so desperate and amateur hour a move. It was a move made only by a losing campaign, picking someone who had come in seventh place in the presidential nomination contest this year, picking up very little support along the way. In no way would such a weak and losing candidate bring anything to the ticket for Ted Cruz. Strategically, the timing and the choice of Carly Fiorina was a terrible decision.
Politically, this choice invalidated just about every reason I so strongly supported Ted Cruz, because Carly Fiorina is not anything that Ted Cruz in fact is. I ranked Fiorina at the very bottom of just about all the 17 candidates that ran this, including even Jeb Bush, because she’s not a conservative, she’s not an outsider, she’s not a reformer, and she is corrupt, tied to cronyism, and bought and paid for and connected to the establishment. To pick Carly Fiorina as his running mate, is just as bad as if Cruz had picked Jeb Bush or Lindsey Graham. If Ted Cruz really thinks Fiorina is qualified to be vice president, how can I be confident, or tell others, he will make great appointments to the Supreme Court or cabinet positions? Suddenly I lost confidence in Ted Cruz to make good decisions after how badly he blundered on the Carly Fiorina decision.
Up until exactly nine days ago today, I supported Ted Cruz for president as much as anyone, argued for his candidacy with anyone, and really believed he was the best candidate for the GOP nomination, and to actually be the president. The he made the pick of Carly Fiorina, quite prematurely, as his would-be running mate if he won the nomination, and the GOP convention went along with Fiorina being the candidate for vice president. It is no coincidence that, just six days after making this colossal blunder of a running mate announcement, and the totally non-Cruz type individual he chose to be the running mate, moderate and squishy Carly Fiorina, Cruz has no choice but to suspend his campaign after being destroyed and losing all 57 Indiana delegates to Donald Trump, just days after Nate Silver’s Polls Plus forecast had Ted Cruz winning the state. Let’s not mince words, and let’s be honest enough to admit it, the Fiorina choice had more than anything else, any other factors, in ending Cruz’s 2016 quest for the GOP nomination. I know there will be some fellow Ted Cruz supporters that don’t want to hear this, or read it, but it’s time for us to be honest with ourselves, and learn the lessons, and not just keep telling us those things that make us feel better, in a false way. Ted Cruz made the mistakes that lost this nomination battle. Donald Trump is not the problem here, nor is he to blame.
Ted Cruz, himself, was the strongest asset his campaign had, as the strong conservative candidate who, as an almost unknown first term senator before that, attracted as much support as he did in this campaign for president. But it was also Ted Cruz, and those he appointed or hired to run his campaign, that made all the mistakes, including the delegate strategy that created such bad optics, the choice to not emphasize a Middle Class Prosperity message that clearly would have won this campaign, and then in the end, the Carly Fiorina decision that was the last straw of a desperate and losing campaign. Ted Cruz made these mistakes, not Donald Trump.
Those are the lessons of the 2016 Ted Cruz for president campaign. We can learn from them and be better prepared for next time. Or we can bash Trump supporters, and those who call for Republicans to unify behind the GOP nominee, and keep our heads in the sands and be doomed to repeat those mistakes next time.
With Donald Trump’s resounding win last night in Pensylvania, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maryland and Delaware, Trump captured over 60 percent in four out of five of these races. This signals the end of the Ted Cruz campaign, with him only winning 3 Delaware delegates. He has reached the point where he cannot reach a majority of the delegates on the first ballot, and because of this he must now deny Trump 1237 so he can win on a potential second ballot.
Cruz’s problems are more deep than just his losses last night, a new FOX poll has Trump leading Cruz by eight percentage points in Indiana, a mathematical must-win state for Senator Cruz. Analysts say that if Trump were to win Indiana, it would likely mean that Trump has the nomination at the end of this fight. He currently sits at 954 pledged delegates with Cruz at 562 delegates. There are a total of 502 delegates left outstanding. This count doesn’t include the 39 unbound delegates from Pensylvania who are likely to vote for Mr. Trump on the first ballot due to his resounding win on Tuesday. Only three unbound delegates who promise to vote for Cruz were elected in Pensylvania.
Mr Cruz appeared to have an ace up his sleeve today however when he chose former CEO Carly Fiorina to be his running mate, undoubtedly a play for female Republican primary voters. It’s unclear if this will have any impact in Indiana or anywhere else in the country because Carly Fiorina placed seventh place in both Iowa and New Hampshire before dropping out due to her extrordinarily awful polling numbers. We’re going to have to wait to see what kind of data we get from these states before we know for sure what the impact will be, but if the past is any indicator, it wont do much, and much of the news cycle today has been dedicated to Trump’s resounding win last night and Cruz’s desperation today.
Not only does it seem unlikely that Fiorina will help Cruz, but the move may play to Trump’s benefit. Trump has extensively campaigned as the champion of the middle class. He campaigns on bringing back jobs from China, from Mexico, from Japan and anywhere else that has been the beneficiary of outsourcing in this country. Yet Carly Fiorina as CEO of Hewitt-Packard laid off thousands of workers to other countries as the .com boom busted. I expect Donald Trump to hammer this point home in the coming days.as he campaigns in various parts of the country.
Ted Cruz needs to do something he doesn’t appear apt to do: Concede defeat. He has damaged his brand significantly with the selection of Carly Fiorina as his running mate, not only due to her failed presidential campaign but due to her failed business record. We have a nominee of the Republican party, and I call on all Republicans to unite behind Donald J. Trump this november to defeat Hillary Clinton. There isn’t anything we can’t do together.
The choice of Carly Fiorina invalidates most reasons for supporting Ted Cruz
After the announcement today of Carly Fiorina, by Ted Cruz, as his running mate, I no longer can support this candidacy and the candidate advancing any further in this year’s 2016 presidential contest for the GOP nomination for president. This is a move that, in my mind, almost completely invalidates all the reasons for supporting Cruz in this race. And remember, I declared my support not long ago to #NeverHillary and I still stick to that. I will never support anything, anyone, or otherwise that helps Hillary Clinton become president.
For several months I have supported Ted Cruz for president, advised everyone who would listen to vote for him in the primaries, and then I voted for him in the primary myself on March 1. I made the case so many times for nominating yet another first term senator for president, who although not perfect, had many qualities that made him the best choice for the nomination this year among the candidates who were running. I made the case many times how much he’s a solid conservative Republican who would do what needs to be done as president, and appoint great choices for Supreme Court justices, and federal judges, all the positions in the cabinet and all the other appointments that presidents make. I believed that he, as much as anyone else, understands that personnel is policy, and the people a president appoints are every much as important as the policies the administration will advocate and advance.
The first key personnel choice, that is usually made by nominees who are assured of winning the nomination as opposed to a candidate who has not yet won that nomination, is the choice of a running mate to be the candidate for vice president, the second highest office in the land. The key qualification for a candidate for vice president, since they can become president, is being qualified to be president. This choice also is the candidate’s first chance to prove that they have solid and sound judgment, and that they understand that personnel is policy. So what do we get from Ted Cruz’s first appointment, as someone who would be president, for the second spot? We get someone who most Republican voters have rejected, this year, for president, namely Carly Fiorina. Almost no one deemed her to be qualified for president, therefore, why would anyone suggest she is qualified to run for vice president? Why did Ted Cruz come to this judgment and select her to be his running mate?
I will not mince words. This running mate choice by Ted Cruz today is an abominably terrible choice. It is the wrong candidate for vice president, announced at the most wrong time, and done for all the wrong reasons. This choice, and its timing, strikes out on all counts. This has been described as a desperate “hail Mary” by pundits. They’re right, it’s a hail Mary that was intercepted in the end zone and returned for a touchdown by the opposing team. Use all the sports cliches you want, but this very terrible call by Ted Cruz is game, set, and match for Donald Trump, who will win the GOP nomination this year. I cannot support this nomination in any way. I am not leaving the Cruz campaign, to paraphrase Ronald Reagan referring to his departure from the Democrat Party, the Cruz campaign has left me, and millions of others, behind with this completely un-smart decision to announce Carly Fiorina as his running mate today.
What was the major reason for supporting Ted Cruz and opposing Donald Trump for the nomination? Consistent, courageous, constitutional, conservative reigniting the promise of America? Remember that? Was it for real or just talk? And we were told how un-conservative Donald Trump is. A candidate promising a consistent, courageous, constitutional, and conservative administration should know that personnel is policy, and creating and building such an administration would start, when the choice is announced at the right time, with an announcement of a candidate for the nomination for vice president who fits that description. Congressman Dave Brat would be perfect. But I know not to let the perfect be the enemy of the good, and someone like South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley or New Mexico Gov. Susana Martinez would have been an excellent choice.
But also-ran presidential candidate, and abysmally failed former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, is the best that Ted Cruz can come up with? Really? First, Fiorina is not a conservative. Not even close, as President Obama said. Not. Even. Close. She wasn’t successful in the business world, she was a disaster as CEO of HP and then got fired by the board. She was an epic failure as Republican nominee for California Senator against Sen. Barbara Boxer. She failed badly as a presidential candidate this year, coming in something like seventh place in a field of 16 candidates. How does the seventh place also-ran candidate some how bring energy and balance to a Ted Cruz presidential ticket? Is this for real? Is this a really bad April fools joke announced 26 days too late? Is this possibly the worst running mate choice ever made by someone who has chance (quickly fading after this announcement) of winning the nomination of one of the two major parties for president? Maybe George McGovern’s choice of Thomas Eagleton in 1972 was perhaps a more unwise choice.
If this is the best that Ted Cruz can come up with, in making his first major personnel decision, what kind of appointments will he make as president? How can I assume he knows what are good choices for justices, judges, and cabinet appointments if he actually thinks anointing Carly Fiorina for vice president is a good choice? This appointment is a joke. If you had told me four months ago that any candidate would have picked Carly Fiorina for vice president, I would have asked, are you predicting that is who Donald Trump’s choice will be? If you had told me that Ted Cruz would nominate Carly Fiorina for vice president, I would have asked you, what are you smoking? Now I’m asking what is Ted Cruz been smoking?
This choice destroys every main reason for supporting Ted Cruz for president. He has appointed someone who is clearly not qualified for the office, and someone who is clearly not a conservative and is clearly less conservative than any of the other candidates still in the race for the GOP nomination this year. Ted Cruz was the only remaining candidate not named Donald Trump who still had some outside chance of winning the GOP nomination for president. Now that clearly will not happen. Ted Cruz will lose many supporters with this move, and Donald Trump will easily win most of the remaining delegates on his way to exceeding the needed 1237 delegates and winning the nomination. I strongly hope that Trump will make a better nomination for vice president when the time comes, because clearly he will be the 2016 GOP nominee for president.
Defeating, and saving the country from, Hillary Clinton is the highest objective for November. I don’t want the sophistry about Donald Trump being just as liberal as Hillary Clinton, because it’s clearly not true, even if Trump may not be as conservative as many of us would prefer. But he is going to be a Republican nominee, and unifying behind his candidate in Cleveland will be necessary for defeating Hillary Clinton.
Ted Cruz has, with the announcement of this incredibly bad choice for a running mate, reached the same stage of the process that Bernie Sanders has reached in the Democrat nominating process. They should both withdraw, and for the sake of their respective parties unifying for November, support the presumptive nominee of their parties. Staying in the race beyond this point for either of them can on decrease the odds that their party’s nominee wins in November. For our side, the Republican Party nomination contest, that means it’s time for Kasich and Cruz to step out and support the nominee who has been chosen by the highest number of voters, and pledged delegates, in the nominating process.
There is no doubt that Trump will reach 1237 delegates, and legitimately win the GOP nomination by the party’s nominating rules. That being the case, it’s time to unite behind the nominee and beat Hillary Clinton in November. We have a nominee and it’s time for all Republicans to support the Republican nominee, Donald Trump, to beat Hillary in November.
Ted Cruz presidency in the first 100 days
A Ted Cruz presidency, as least in the first hundred days, would be primarily efforts to repeal and reverse the economically and socially damaging policies of the current president, Barack Obama, that was quite accurately labeled “The Great Destroyer” in a book by that title by David Limbaugh, as well as efforts to advance public policies that would bring about a strong economic recovery and begin the repairing of the social fabric of our county, as well as a return to an American-interests-first foreign policy.
Ted Cruz has enormous support among Republicans voters because he’s a mainstream but consistent conservative who is an economic conservative as well as social conservative while also being a strong national security conservative. Ted Cruz will implement a plan to protect Americans from extreme Muslim-influenced terrorism while eradicating ISIS. During the campaign, Cruz has made it clear the policy of apologizing for America will end, and we’ll see a return of the Reagan policy that says we win, and enemies of America around the world will lose. Ronald Reagan won the Cold War, and President Ted Cruz will likewise win the war on terrorism.
First, after delivering a quite Reaganesque inauguration address, President Ted Cruz will be ready on day one to sign several executive orders, including many that would reverse so many of the unconstitutional and destructive “executive actions” signed by President Barack Obama. Many needless regulations and other damaging policies of the current administration would be reversed on day one by President Cruz.
Ted Cruz will propose to Congress his simple flat tax plan, where everyone pays 10 percent, and gets a $10,000 standard deduction and a $4000 personal exemption. The IRS would be abolished, and the thousands of pages of tax forms will be replaced with a one-page tax form we’ll all fill out to pay our taxes. The plan will lower everyone’s taxes, help bring about solid economic growth, and create millions of high-paying jobs.
President Cruz will submit to the Congress a strong Balanced Budget Amendment, because the federal government, like our own households, needs to learn how to live within it means and stop spending money that it doesn’t have. And Ted Cruz knows that, despite more than 100 million Americans being unemployed, the federal government is going to take in more than $3 trillion in income tax revenue this year, a record amount, and it proves the government is squeezing excessively too much tax revenue from hard working Americans. Cruz knows that major tax relief for the middle class of America, which his plan will accomplish, will bring about strong economic growth.
Like Barry Goldwater and Ronald Reagan, President Cruz will seek to reduce the size, scope, and intrusiveness of the federal government by eliminating five federal government departments that aren’t needed, or are not provided for in the Constitution. President Ted Cruz will propose eliminating the IRS and the Departments of Education, Energy, Commerce, and Housing and Urban Development. Additionally, Cruz will eliminate a number of other needless Agencies, Bureaus, Commissions and other programs that benefit the special interests groups and their corrupt cronies at taxpayer expense. As Senator, Ted Cruz proposed eliminating the rogue and out-of-control Consumer Financial Protection Bureau created under the Dodd-Frank banking regulation law, and he will submit that to Congress as president.
As president, Ted Cruz will re-institute President Reagan’s Grace Commission to root out waste, fraud, and abuse of federal spending under many areas of the federal government, and implement thousands of cost-cutting and revenue-enhancing ideas to bring about more efficient better government rather than bloated and inefficient bigger government. Additionally, President Cruz will fully empower and unleash the very effective Recovery Audit Contractors program to examine all payments from and root out all the waste, fraud, and abuse in Medicare, Medicaid, and all other federal health care programs.
From day one, Ted Cruz will send Congress legislation to repeal Obamacare and replace it with legislation that will reform health care by moving toward a number of free market concepts. President Cruz will replace Obamacare with a plan including Health Savings Accounts for all, elimination of the provisions against affordable catastrophic health insurance plans, tort reform that would eliminate frivolous lawsuits and bring down the costs of medical malpractice insurance for doctors, and the allowing of purchasing of medical insurance across state lines to create a real health care marketplace, as opposed to a failed Washington D.C. web site the administration fraudulently calls a “marketplace” for health insurance under Obamacare.
President Cruz would pursue strong regulatory reform that would get needless regulations out of the way of American businesses from being able to create good paying rewarding employment opportunity. And with the repeal of Obamacare that destroyed tens of millions of full-time jobs by converting them to part-time jobs, full-time employment will come back again under a strong economic recover we will see within the first term of the presidency of Ted Cruz.
President Ted Cruz will implement an all-of-the-above energy policy that would involving drilling and fracking for our own sources of oil, natural gas, and clean-burning coal so we truly will become energy-independent rather than reliant on the likes of Saudi Arabia and other Middle East countries. Ted Cruz will not subsidize expensive and un-marketable renewable energy, but under the robust economy that his policies will create, it won’t be long before market-viable renewable energy will be created by the private sector, under the President Ted Cruz, that will come about much sooner than any big government subsidized renewable energy program will ever create.
American will be back again, under President Ted Cruz. He will appoint Supreme Court Justices and federal judges that will uphold The Bill of Rights and all of our Constitutionally protected freedoms. Under Ted Cruz, American will win again and the entire world will know it. Peace and stability around the globe will return when the world’s lone superpower, the United States of America, will once again step up to the role of being the world’s leading advocate of peace, prosperity, and justice around the world. As Dinesh D’Souza chronicles in the documentary America: Imagine the World Without Her, the United States has much to be proud of in our history, and American Exceptionalism is very real, and will once against be celebrated under President Ted Cruz, as it was under President Ronald Reagan.
And the free market economy, which as Ryan Houck of FreeMarketAmerica says of it in his great viral video, “the free market is the only force in human history to uplift the poor, establish the middle class and create lasting prosperity.” The Free Market truly is the only way we can have a large and growing middle class and have prosperity within reach of the highest percentage of our population that desire it. Socialism can never do this, and only fails when we run out of other people’s money to steal from Peter and pay it to Paul, and Ted Cruz understands economics quite well and knows this.
It would be clear in the first 100 days, that the policies advanced by Ted Cruz as president will help improve the quality of life of all Americans. Ted Cruz as president will truly reignite the promise of America. Ted Cruz will truly bring back the American Dream.
We’re headed for a massive electoral defeat this November. That’s the analysis of the media pundits and many of the conservative activists on both sides of the debate over who should be the nominee. The reason? Voters want their chosen candidate and want to screw the other major contender out of the nomination. Trump voters think Cruz is a scumbag who is abusing the rules process and gaming the system to get delegates he doesn’t deserve; likewise Cruz voters believe Trump is a fraud, a fake conservative who should not be nominated under any circumstance. To them, he is a bully, a demagogue, a scam artist and someone who has teamed up with the Clinton machine to defeat conservatism and define the party for decades.
This is poisonous
Both Cruz and Trump love this nation. No one should be publishing this kind of garbage on Facebook and twitter, putting up signs and posters demonizing the other candidate. Both Trump voters and Cruz voters need to take a MAJOR chill-pill and realize what’s really at stake here: Do we really want a Hillary Clinton presidency? The same Hillary Clinton who will use the judiciary to undermine our freedom of speech, our gun rights, our privacy rights, states rights, and not to mention every other right in the constitution. Are we willing, as a party, to give up every single thing we hold dear because we hate each other so much? It’s the heat of an election cycle, and I get it that people are very very passionate. So let’s translate that passion into a positive energy.
The only solution is a Trump-Cruz ticket. This would unite our party like nothing else. Everyone would get what they want, at least in part, and it would result in a majority of the party uniting behind the Republican ticket in November. We cannot win this election if 63% of Trump supporters are willing to vote for him as a third party option and 2/3 of non-Trump supporters are willing to vote third party if he is the nominee. We as supporters of either Trump or Cruz cannot and do not control what our candidates do. We control what we say and do online. We are responsible for our own actions, not those of anyone else. To both the Cruz and the Trump fans: I respect you both. You both love this country. I do too. I don’t want to see a Hillary Clinton presidency because it has the potential to destroy this country. We, as conservatives are family.
If we don’t win in November, we all hold responsibility in equal proportion. No one is innocent, we all participated in the savaging of each other, doing everything we could do to alienate the other faction of our party, pissing each other off daily with our vitriol. I have tried myself to stay out of this mess to whatever degree I could. But I have fallen short at times, and that’s something I deeply regret. It didn’t build the party or contribute anything positive.
The healing begins with you and I, and I hope you’ll join me in making an effort to heal this party and win a huge victory this November. Let’s prove the pundits wrong.
Ted Cruz could lead in the GOP delegate count
The GOP delegate race between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz is far closer and more competitive than most of the mainstream media is reporting. As a result, and in an effort to get a more accurate view of where this race stands, comes this effort to update the picture with the more accurate reflection of where the GOP stands in the delegate count. The current delegate count reported by Real Clear Politics will be the starting point, with the specific changes not reported there, reported here instead. The current numbers reported there are 755 delegates for Donald Trump, and 545 delegates for Ted Cruz.
The previous edition of this column addressed why the 50 delegates Trump win in South Carolina will be converted to uncommitted, allowing those delegates to possibly and maybe likely vote for Ted Cruz on the first ballot in Cleveland. Additionally, the 10 delegates in Louisiana gained by Cruz were explained, five were uncommitted delegates won by Cruz and the other five were the delegates Marco Rubio won in that state from primary voters. These changes leave the count at Trump 705, Cruz 555.
Conventions held recently in Tennessee and Virginia have lead to Trump losing eight delegates to Ted Cruz, while Cruz has gained an additional 8 delegates won from North Dakota. Additionally, it is reported from Republicans in Arizona that the state’s 58 delegates will actually be evenly split between the candidates, causing 29 delegates to move from Trump to Cruz. These changes mean Ted Cruz has 608 delegates to Trump’s 660 delegates.
Marco Rubio, who is all but certainly likely to endorse Ted Cruz, has 166 remaining delegates, that are likely to vote for Ted Cruz on the first ballot in Cleveland. Those delegates will give Ted Cruz a 774 to 660 delegate lead over Donald Trump right now. That’s right, a Ted Cruz lead over Donald Trump in delegates right now.
What will happen after this is a likely split of most of the states between Trump and Cruz with Kasich winning some delegates in a few of the states. Going with those projections, and using the delegate simulator at Real Clear Politics, and then factoring in the changes covered in this article, the delegate count finishes with Ted Cruz having a 1071 delegates to 1051 delegates lead over Donald Trump. But even at those numbers, some media outlets might still be reporting a delegate lead for Trump. If the 50 delegates from South Carolina vote for Cruz, which is likely, Ted Cruz would be at 1101 delegates on the first ballot in Cleveland.
There will be well over 100 other uncommitted delegates, and both Ted Cruz and Donald Trump will have every right to work on winning those delegates. They will likely split between the two candidates on the first ballot. It seems likely that both candidates will fall short of the 1237 delegate votes needed to win the nomination on the first ballot. Ted Cruz would stand a good chance of winning at least 1237 on the second ballot to win the nomination and run against Hillary Clinton in November.