Dear voters, I know you all have individual opinions about who should be nominated. Right now, we have only one real choice: We must nominate Donald J. Trump for the presidency. This is a moral imperative if nothing else. Ted Cruz has run an honorable campaign, he has spoken about the conservative agenda in ways that have excited many voters, however he lacks the mandate from the electorate. More states have gone to Trump (21) than Cruz (11) and weather or not he won a majority in any of these states is a mute point because NO one won a majority in any state, with the possible exception of Ted Cruz in a few small caucus states.
Trump has also won more popular votes than any other candidate, and voters believe their voices should be heard. The arguement that Trump has only received 37 percent of the vote and therefore everyone else was voting against him doesn’t fly either, because in any of these states the Kasich, Rubio, Bush, Carson, Christie, and Fiorina votes didn’t go to Cruz either. None of these candidates have won a “majority”. It’s almost impossible for any candidate to win a majority of the delegates in a field of 17 candidates. The standard isn’t fair, and voters agree, according to a new NBC News poll, over 60 percent of voters believe the person who has won the most votes going into a convention should be nominated. That’s because most voters believe in a democracy, weather we live in a constitutional republic or not. Voters want their voices heard. That’s probably why 45 percent of voters in this same poll believe it would be acceptable for Trump to run as a third party, as 47 percent do not. If we potentially lose 45 percent of our party, it could be fatal. When perception is matched against the “rules,” the perception will always defeat the “rules.”
But what about the delegates? Don’t they decide the nominee? Technically, yes, they do and they have for many many years. But in the age of the 24/7 media and the primary and caucus system influencing perception, its difficult politically not to give the nomination to someone who has won more votes, more states and more delegates. I’ve heard many Cruz supporters argue that it’s entirely up to the delegates, and they are 100 percent correct. It’s also up to voters in November, and if they choose not to turn out for our nominee, we will lose to Hillary Clinton. We cannot allow the perception of a rigged political process to take hold. In today’s America, voters demand their say, weather they technically have a right to it or not.
Where do we go from here? That’s a good question. I think we must put our emotions aside and focus on what’s really important here, as I discussed in my previous article. The #NeverTrump crowd needs to think about what they have fought for over the last several decades AND what they fought against. Most conservatives didn’t fight against Donald Trump in the 90s, but they did fight the Clintons. They fought Hillary when she tried to install universal healthcare, they fought for justice when agents were fired from the travel office. They fought against the Clintons when Bill Clinton vetoed welfare reform, until he signed it. I don’t remember a lot of conservatives fighting against Donald Trump in the 90s, because Donald Trump said at the 1988 convention that he was a Republican… that’s right…all the way back to 1988.
Ted Cruz is a smart man, with a great political future. As Donald Trump’s vice president he would be in good position to run in the year 2024, after serving two consecutive terms as Trump’s right hand man. As a original voter for Ted Cruz, having lived in Texas in 2012 and voted for him in both the primary and general elections, I know Ted Cruz is a man of integrity, and I look forward to him supporting this party and becoming president in the future.
We’re headed for a massive electoral defeat this November. That’s the analysis of the media pundits and many of the conservative activists on both sides of the debate over who should be the nominee. The reason? Voters want their chosen candidate and want to screw the other major contender out of the nomination. Trump voters think Cruz is a scumbag who is abusing the rules process and gaming the system to get delegates he doesn’t deserve; likewise Cruz voters believe Trump is a fraud, a fake conservative who should not be nominated under any circumstance. To them, he is a bully, a demagogue, a scam artist and someone who has teamed up with the Clinton machine to defeat conservatism and define the party for decades.
This is poisonous
Both Cruz and Trump love this nation. No one should be publishing this kind of garbage on Facebook and twitter, putting up signs and posters demonizing the other candidate. Both Trump voters and Cruz voters need to take a MAJOR chill-pill and realize what’s really at stake here: Do we really want a Hillary Clinton presidency? The same Hillary Clinton who will use the judiciary to undermine our freedom of speech, our gun rights, our privacy rights, states rights, and not to mention every other right in the constitution. Are we willing, as a party, to give up every single thing we hold dear because we hate each other so much? It’s the heat of an election cycle, and I get it that people are very very passionate. So let’s translate that passion into a positive energy.
The only solution is a Trump-Cruz ticket. This would unite our party like nothing else. Everyone would get what they want, at least in part, and it would result in a majority of the party uniting behind the Republican ticket in November. We cannot win this election if 63% of Trump supporters are willing to vote for him as a third party option and 2/3 of non-Trump supporters are willing to vote third party if he is the nominee. We as supporters of either Trump or Cruz cannot and do not control what our candidates do. We control what we say and do online. We are responsible for our own actions, not those of anyone else. To both the Cruz and the Trump fans: I respect you both. You both love this country. I do too. I don’t want to see a Hillary Clinton presidency because it has the potential to destroy this country. We, as conservatives are family.
If we don’t win in November, we all hold responsibility in equal proportion. No one is innocent, we all participated in the savaging of each other, doing everything we could do to alienate the other faction of our party, pissing each other off daily with our vitriol. I have tried myself to stay out of this mess to whatever degree I could. But I have fallen short at times, and that’s something I deeply regret. It didn’t build the party or contribute anything positive.
The healing begins with you and I, and I hope you’ll join me in making an effort to heal this party and win a huge victory this November. Let’s prove the pundits wrong.
Ted Cruz could lead in the GOP delegate count
The GOP delegate race between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz is far closer and more competitive than most of the mainstream media is reporting. As a result, and in an effort to get a more accurate view of where this race stands, comes this effort to update the picture with the more accurate reflection of where the GOP stands in the delegate count. The current delegate count reported by Real Clear Politics will be the starting point, with the specific changes not reported there, reported here instead. The current numbers reported there are 755 delegates for Donald Trump, and 545 delegates for Ted Cruz.
The previous edition of this column addressed why the 50 delegates Trump win in South Carolina will be converted to uncommitted, allowing those delegates to possibly and maybe likely vote for Ted Cruz on the first ballot in Cleveland. Additionally, the 10 delegates in Louisiana gained by Cruz were explained, five were uncommitted delegates won by Cruz and the other five were the delegates Marco Rubio won in that state from primary voters. These changes leave the count at Trump 705, Cruz 555.
Conventions held recently in Tennessee and Virginia have lead to Trump losing eight delegates to Ted Cruz, while Cruz has gained an additional 8 delegates won from North Dakota. Additionally, it is reported from Republicans in Arizona that the state’s 58 delegates will actually be evenly split between the candidates, causing 29 delegates to move from Trump to Cruz. These changes mean Ted Cruz has 608 delegates to Trump’s 660 delegates.
Marco Rubio, who is all but certainly likely to endorse Ted Cruz, has 166 remaining delegates, that are likely to vote for Ted Cruz on the first ballot in Cleveland. Those delegates will give Ted Cruz a 774 to 660 delegate lead over Donald Trump right now. That’s right, a Ted Cruz lead over Donald Trump in delegates right now.
What will happen after this is a likely split of most of the states between Trump and Cruz with Kasich winning some delegates in a few of the states. Going with those projections, and using the delegate simulator at Real Clear Politics, and then factoring in the changes covered in this article, the delegate count finishes with Ted Cruz having a 1071 delegates to 1051 delegates lead over Donald Trump. But even at those numbers, some media outlets might still be reporting a delegate lead for Trump. If the 50 delegates from South Carolina vote for Cruz, which is likely, Ted Cruz would be at 1101 delegates on the first ballot in Cleveland.
There will be well over 100 other uncommitted delegates, and both Ted Cruz and Donald Trump will have every right to work on winning those delegates. They will likely split between the two candidates on the first ballot. It seems likely that both candidates will fall short of the 1237 delegate votes needed to win the nomination on the first ballot. Ted Cruz would stand a good chance of winning at least 1237 on the second ballot to win the nomination and run against Hillary Clinton in November.